MLB Game Picks – Friday: October 18, 2013

I tried to find it and could not. But basically what I was looking for was this tweet by a big-time beat writer that said that Koji Uehara had given up four runs in four post season innings. I remember he said, “Yikes” at the end of the tweet. This was after Uehara had taken a loss on the famous Jose Lobaton homer in the ALDS. The tweet was laughable because we all tend to make a big deal over such small sample sizes when it comes to the post season. Koji Uehara has been amazing ever since that homer. He is a difference maker.
And that is a good lesson to take when picking winners in these games. You cannot get all hung up because one player is batting .500 in the series. Each game is a crap shoot inside of a series that is a crap shoot. If you play 162 games, you have a pretty good idea how good a player and a team are. Five or seven games? Not so much. As much as possible, you go by the 162 and not the latter. Such was the case in my pick yesterday between the Red Sox and the Tigers. And on that day, it worked. Today? Who knows. Remember, it is a crap shoot.
Friday’s pick:

  • The Dodgers over the Cardinals: This game is the perfect illustration of what I was just talking about. Michael Wacha had a very good 2.78 ERA in the regular season in what still is a short sample size. Even smaller is his fourteen brilliant innings so far in this post season. He has pitched two games, 14 innings, one run, seventeen strikeouts while allowing only six hits and three walks. That is enough juice to make you whistle in awe. But it was just two games. He still has to pitch a third. And you know what? He still has to pitch against what has been the best pitcher in baseball over the past two seasons. Clayton Kershaw also is a lefty. The Cardinals don’t like lefties. I cannot see them scoring more than a run. So the Dodgers have to score two or three to win this game. I see a Game 7 happening in this series.

Yesterday: 1-0
Post season: 18-13
Season: 1391-1080
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